Sam Iles's Blog

Geez.

A.

Lou.

For a blog which started out almost exclusively about technology, I sure haven’t blogged about technology for a long time. So here goes: The iPad 2. It will be announced on Wednesday, if the hints from the invitation are anything to go by. I figured I had better write some kind of prediction post with what I think we might see. Naturally, nobody will care. But I like writing.

The first issue will be who does the presentation. I assume it will be Tim Cook, the acting CEO since Steve Jobs is on medical leave at the moment, or someone like Schiller. One thing I have seen thrown around is that the idea that it may be announced that Jobs will not be returning to the company at all at this event, or that a plan of CEO-succession may be announced. This will not happen. When Jobs does quit, Apple’s share price will have a seizure and nosedive. For this reason, any kind of announcement like this will be made after trading hours, giving the market the night to reflect on the change and time for Apple to explain why it won’t happen. The announcement won’t happen at ten o’clock in the morning at the start of a full day of trading. Moving on:

So, about the actual device. Firstly, what major changes will there be? Screen size, for example. I expect it will stay exactly the same as it is now. Apple has been more than happy to berate the 7″ devices as DOA and pointless. (I agree, too. I have used a Galaxy Tab and, for me, I found it to be portable but not at all useful.) The only reason I can see Apple making a 7″ device is if demand for them is very high and taking product sales away from the iPad, which certainly isn’t happening now. But, you never know. And, remember, just because Steve says he hates something, doesn’t mean it won’t happen – he said nobody wanted to watch video on an iPod, he said Apple would never make a phone, he said Apple would never get involved in books because people don’t read and he said they’d never make a tablet because they were so bad.

And, about the screen resolution. I think it’s perfectly good. Fantastic, even. I wrote a piece about the idea of it having a retina display before:

Then there is the issue of the screen. People are throwing around the idea of a retina display for the iPad. I think this is complete crazy talk. Let’s remember what the definition of a Retina display is: a display with which the average human eye cannot discern the individual pixels. Apple found this to be 300 PPI. Consider what this meant for the iPhone: Original iPhone: 480 x 320 = 153,600 pixels at 165 PPI iPhone 4: 960 x 640 = 614,400 pixels at 330 PPI This is a big jump and these remain very big numbers but let’s transfer this to the iPad. Giving the iPad a retina display with at least 300 PPI, the resolution would be 2560 x 1920. That may not sound a lot, but it is. That’s more than my 17 inch MacBook Pro. It’s twice as much as Dell’s highest class 24 inch monitor. We’re talking about a 10 inch iPad which would be displaying as much information as two 24 inch monitors. Imagine how much rendering this would take. There is no way that an A4 could do that. Even assuming a new processor was powerful enough for general apps, even an Xbox could barely render a fast moving game at sizes like this. You would to tie a generator to the back of the iPad to use it without a power source.

I stand by all that. I don’t think it will have a retina display. I also think people need to be more careful when they talk about things like a “slight resolution increase”. I do not think Apple will do this. The iPad is currently 1024 × 768 and increasing the resolution a bit would create a weird number of pixels. The problem is for developers. Android has this problem and Apple have slated (PTP) it before, saying that developers have to make several different versions of apps to cope with all the different possible resolutions and sizes. With the iPhone 3GS to iPhone 4, the pixels were doubled to make the retina display. This meant there was no problem for developers – Apple could easily deal with resizing things and just ask developers to make higher quality graphics whenever they could.

You can’t make 1.3 times more pixels and have it work this flawlessly. Developers would need to change things and there would be multiple inconsistencies and unpleasantness. I think there will either be a doubling of resolution (which will take us to 2048 x 1536 pixels and 264 PPI, just short of the 2560 x 1920 and 326 target for a retina display) or no change at all.

Of course, resolution doesn’t have to change for a better screen. The screen can have better contrast and colours or better viewing angles or better response to sunlight. I’m not saying it will be the exact same screen – just I don’t think a resolution change will happen.

So, what else. A camera? A cameraS? Sure, why not. While I don’t think Apple will always do things that make sense, everyone is just certain there will be two cameras. Just don’t be so certain. As I wrote before:

Apple doesn’t mind saying no to something. I can picture Steve on stage right now, saying that the iPad has a camera on the front because, ‘FaceTime is great, everyone loves FaceTime,’ and then smoothly explaining away the lack of rear camera with, ‘but, nobody wants a camera on the back, nobody wants to hold up their big iPad, nobody wants that.’

And the SD card slot? Well, I don’t think so. Again, as I wrote before:

Consider the rumour of SD slot. Right. Hmm. Well, I don’t think so. Currently, Apple sells a small piece of hardware which plugs into your 32 pin connector and acts as a SD card reader. That’s great. I can look at my photos. Yay. But thats all. It’s a reader, nothing more. If Apple puts in a SD slot, would they allow you to simply use it as storage space? I don’t think so. Apple sells three three storage sizes of iPad. There is a bigger markup on the bigger devices and I don’t think they’ll throw all that away by adding an SD slow. Reader, perhaps. But, it’s seems like too much trouble to go to to add just a reader when they can charge you an ungodly amount for an adapter.

And the boring stuff. RAM increase? Sure. New processor? Sure (I don’t it’s the A4unicorn). Storage bumps? Probably.

Then, the other news.

iOS 5: I HOPE SO. Apple usually shows it off before it ships and this seems like the ideal time. I expect one of the tent poles to be a new notifications system. And that’s really all I care about.

MobileMe for the peasants: Will it be free? Is this why Apple built their big data centre? They recently stopped selling boxed versions of MobileMe, so it’s almost certain that something will be changing. I hope it gets free.

iTunes in the clouds: Will it happen? Is this why Apple built their big data centre? I sure hope so.

“Oh, and there is one more thing:

We are making a hydrogen car! It’s called the Apple Car.

Oh, and we’ve made a super intelligent robot to clean your house and stuff!”

Man, that would be cool.

Apple’s 1st generation iPad has been pretty much a resounding success. They’ve sold Well over five million and, in theory at least, there’ll be a new one in 2011. I personally think it’ll be released in spring 2011, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is what will it be.

Firstly, cameras. Everyone seems to think it’s a dead cert that it will have a front and rear facing camera. Whilst I wouldn’t really mind a front facing camera for Skype, I see little reason for a camera on the back. I can’t possibly imagine a single scenario when I would use it. My iphone has an incredible camera on the back and my iPhone is always with me. Always. I see no reason to put a camera on the back, primarily because I’m never going to hold up my iPad to take photos. For me, it makes no more sense to have a camera on my iPad than it does to have one on the back of my MacBook.

But, the people seem to think it will have both cameras. Most are certain. Most say that it must have both cameras. But, Apple isn’t one to something that makes no sense. Apple doesn’t mind saying no to something. I can picture Steve on stage right now, saying that the iPad has a camera on the front because, ‘FaceTime is great, everyone loves FaceTime,’ and then smoothly explaining away the lack of rear camera with, ‘but, nobody wants a camera on the back, nobody wants to hold up their big iPad, nobody wants that.’

Saying this, a front camera also wouldn’t be all that great. Think about the way your iSight camera works on your Mac. It’s right there in front of you, all perfect and helpful. But, on the iPad, there are two options: have your FaceTime partner stare up your nose or hold it in front of your face. But, seriously now, have you tried holding this thing up for more than 12 seconds? It’s amazingly heavy.

Of course, I’m not saying there absolutely won’t be any cameras on the device (in fact, I think there will be) but just remember that Apple doesn’t always (in fact, there’s a list of such examples) do what people expect or think they want. Steve knows what you want…

Moving onto features which are much more likely and we get to the obvious evolutionary developments like the device being thinner and lighter. Certainly for me, lightness would be the good one. The iPad 1 is so, so heavy. I think thinness and lightness are pretty much a given with all Apple upgrades. I certainly hope so. Also, the processor and RAM are sure to be upgraded (even if they don’t tell us).

Then there is the issue of the screen. People are throwing around the idea of a retina display for the iPad. I think this is complete crazy talk. Let’s remember what the definition of a Retina display is: a display with which the average human eye cannot discern the individual pixels. Apple found this to be 300 PPI. Consider what this meant for the iPhone:

Original iPhone: 480 x 320 = 153,600 pixels at 165 PPI iPhone 4: 960 x 640 = 614,400 pixels at 330 PPI

This is a big jump and these remain very big numbers but let’s transfer this to the iPad. Giving the iPad a retina display with at least 300 PPI, the resolution would be 2560 x 1920. That may not sound a lot, but it is. That’s more than my 17 inch MacBook Pro. It’s twice as much as Dell’s highest class 24 inch monitor. We’re talking about a 10 inch iPad which would be displaying as much information as two 24 inch monitors.

Imagine how much rendering this would take. There is no way that an A4 could do that. Even assuming a new processor was powerful enough for general apps, even an Xbox could barely render a fast moving game at sizes like this. You would to tie a generator to the back of the iPad to use it without a power source.

Regardless of whether or not it’s technologically possible, it’s just stupid. I mean, seriously, imagine the kind of resolution we’re talking about. Imagine the price it would cost Apple to make this. Baring some kind of miracle, I imagine that a retina display is a big no.

However, I think that it’s almost certain we’ll see a screen improvement. Now, Apple can’t arbitrary change the number of pixels on the screen (developers would cry ‘Androoooid’) but I think an improvement is bound the happen nonetheless. But still, the iPad display is incredible as it is. I would be more than happy if there was no improvement. One of the things which first amazed me was the quality of the screen.

Now we arrive at the more unlikely changes. Consider the rumour of SD slot. Right. Hmm. Well, I don’t think so. Currently, Apple sells a small piece of hardware which plugs into your 32 pin connector and acts as a SD card reader. That’s great. I can look at my photos. Yay. But thats all. It’s a reader, nothing more. If Apple puts in a SD slot, would they allow you to simply use it as storage space? I don’t think so. Apple sells three three storage sizes of iPad. There is a bigger markup on the bigger devices and I don’t think they’ll throw all that away by adding an SD slow. Reader, perhaps. But, it’s seems like too much trouble to go to to add just a reader when they can charge you an ungodly amount for an adapter.

So, is that it? Have I exhausted all rumours? I think so. It seems the iPad upgrades will fall into the category of MacBook ones: processor, RAM and that’s about it (also known as, ‘boring’ upgrades’). I don’t think we’ll see an incredible new iPad, just an update.

In short, will I buy the iPad 2? No. I am more than happy with my current iPad and wouldn’t really change anything about it. I don’t want a camera, I don’t want a better screen, I don’t want a SD slot. All I want is a lighter device.

And I’m not buying a £500 iPad because it’s lighter.

(P.S. Incidentally, this entire post was written on my iPad and it was a fast, enjoyable experience.)

Apple have patented a device which would plug into your iPhone’s/iPod’s/iPad’s 32-pin connector and work as a camera sensor. That’s all the details we have but it makes me super excited.

The iPhone 3GS’s 3MP camera really is not very good. At least, not compared to standard 10MP point and shoots. No flash, no zoom, not a very good sensor. If the camera were good, it would make the iPhone bigger and heavier which obviously is not a good thing.

But imagine of the camera were plugged into the device – giving your iPhone a 10MP camera with zoom and flash. Provided it had a good sensor it would be awesome. Remember, most 10+MP cameras aren’t that very good. Once you get above 8MP it doesn’t really matter: what does matter is the camera’s sensor quality. On this device the quality could be amazing and cheaper because no screen, etc, has to be built in.

Why would it be so good? I can go out today and buy a high quality 10MP camera with a flash. Why would I want one with my iPhone? Well, there a Manu reasons:

1) Always with you. You always have your iPhone. Sure, you would still have to carry around the small device to plug into your iPhone, but not a big iPhone and a big camera.

2) Internet. How many cameras let you upload photos you take staight to Flickr or Twitter or Facebook? How many let you email photos? Imagine what you could do with your iPhone…

3) Geotagging. Cameras with geotagging are great, but expensive. The iPhone camera already geotags photos, but the photo quality is terrible. Imagine what it would be like with this device…

4) iPhoto. The syncing with mac would not only let you copy your photos to your computer, but the iPhone would be powerful enough to face-tag photos and you could edit that right on the device. It could sort them into albums and make amazing slide shows. How many cameras do that now? And it would be even better on the iPad…

5) Apps. Don’t even get me started on this. Suddenly, your camera could do whatever you wanted. Third party apps would make this cameras possibilities endless! How many cameras can do that?

There is more I could talk about, but I’m writing this in bed on my iPhone… Basically, I think this could be the thing that sets the next iPhone apart from the rest. I would buy this instantly. I just would not need a camera if I had this…

Please Apple, please…